As the Norwegian salmon aquaculture faces sustainability challenges and growth restrictions due to high mortality, escapees and negative environmental impacts, there is immense development going on towards innovative technologies to replace and complement open net pens for sea farming . Many new concepts have been designed and there is currently a push towards implementing new concepts in commercial fish farming. Research and development of new technologies is expensive and slow. To make good decisions on distributing resources effectively a better understanding of the impacts bound to applying and scaling up these technologies is needed. This research aims to contribute to this goal.
The objective of this work is to identify the sustainability impacts associated with some emerging technologies for salmon farming and to evaluate the environmental impacts of some future scenarios employing these technologies. The technologies considered in this analysis are semi-closed, closed, land-based, submerged and offshore . Future hypothetical scenarios including a mix of different technologies, or one or two dominating technologies are described. The environmental footprint of 1 kg salmon at farm gate is calculated, including the inputs to the operations and equipment of the farm. By applying the results from the environmental footprint analysis per technology to the future scenarios , rough estimates of the environmental impacts in the different future scenarios for 2050 are quantified. In addition to the environmental impacts, the s ocio-economic impacts of the future scenarios are also evaluated.
Methodological approach : The future scenarios are built based on some key drivers for change such as regulatory framework , technology innovation , access to renewable energy and others . L imitations for future growth such as reduced access to marine area, climate change impacts, ecosystems carrying capacity are also integrated into the future scenarios. The drivers for change and limitations are identified through workshops with key actors from the Norwegian Aquaculture industry. The total production volume in 2050 and the dominating technology or a mix of technologies as a result of the different drivers and limitations is described in each scenario . The sustainability performance of the different scenarios is evaluated by applying environmental, economic and social indicators. These indicators include both quantitative indicators such as GHG emissions (in CO2-equivalents), marine eutrophication, fresh water and marine ecotoxicity, number of jobs and value creation a s well as qualitative indicators such as fish welfare. Relevant indicators have been identified through literature review, stakeholder engagement and semi-structured interviews with industry representatives.
Results and discussion: The potential impacts of the different scenarios are calculated across the indicators and compared to those in the baseline scenario. The results helps to answer whether future growth in aquaculture is possible without a proportional increase in negative impact. The different scenarios give a picture of the potential consequences of the implementation of the different technologies across several sustainability dimensions like the climate, environment, ecosystem and soci ety. This gives a good knowledge base for future policy decision making processes and for the most feasible technology development path .
This work is funded by the Norwegian Seafood Research Fund, Project number: 901833 .