This research investigates the causal effects of ecological disturbances, particularly Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), on low- mobility fisheries and aquaculture sectors, specifically focusing on Florida’s stone crab and oyster industries. Employing the Causal Forest algorithm, we analyze the complex dynamics within Coupled Human-Natural Systems (CHANS) and how these disturbances affect stone crab fisheries and oyster aquaculture.
Our study examines the impact of HABs on the stone crab fishery along Florida’s West Coast, which accounts for 96.3% of the state’s stone crab landings and contributes significantly to the economy with an annual impact of $27.8 million.
We use a machine learning approach to elucidate the impact of HAB on these seafood industries, namely, Causal Forest. This model-agnostic approach recursively partitions the data based on observed covariates, constructing subgroups where the differences in causal effects are maximal. This approach is adept at capturing the complex interactions among multidimensional variables and their respective nonlinear relationships typical in coupled human-nature systems (CHANS). Thus, our analysis emphasizes the differential effects of EDs on resource users tied to low-mobility operations.
Additionally, our research involves a comparative analysis of the stone crab fishery and oyster farming, industries that, while similar in their low mobility nature, operate under different regulatory frameworks. The stone crab industry faces seasonal closures, whereas oyster farming benefits from year-round production policies. This distinction provides a valuable perspective to assess the impact of regulatory differences on resilience and adaptability in the face of ecological challenges.
Our comprehensive analysis aims to shed light on how these varying regulatory environments influence the sustainability and resilience of low-mobility aquaculture and fisheries. The insights from this study are critical in formulating informed policies and management strategies that mitigate the immediate effects of environmental disruptions and enhance the long-term viability of these sectors amid changing ecological conditions.