Aquaculture America 2024

February 18 - 21, 2024

San Antonio, Texas

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR SUPER-INTENSIVE RECIRCULATING SHRIMP AQUACULTURE SYSTEMS

Lijun Liu*, James Anderson, Frank Asche

Food and Resource Economics Department

McCarty B 2120

University of Florida

Gainesville, 32611, FL

LL2700@ufl.edu

 



The rapid expansion of shrimp aquaculture in recent decades has made shrimp a readily available and affordable seafood option. In 2021, global shrimp production reached 10.5 million metric tonnes, with nearly 70% originating from aquaculture. Despite its remarkable success, the conventional pond-based shrimp farming industry faces growing environmental and economic sustainability concerns, particularly due to its vulnerability to diseases. Super-intensive recirculating shrimp aquaculture systems (RAS) offer a promising solution to address the rising global shrimp demand while mitigating environmental and disease impacts. However, these systems also present unique challenges and risks that require careful consideration to ensure their long-term viability and profitability. This paper introduces a simplified model to evaluate the financial feasibility of a hypothetical RAS shrimp farm under various risk scenarios and explores the influence of uncertain economic and biological factors on the profitability of RAS shrimp aquaculture. Profitability is assessed using the probability distribution of the net present value of aquaculture production, and we examine the impact of risks in market price, environmental stressor, disease outbreak, system failure, and biological growth on profitability. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the risk profiles associated with RAS shrimp aquaculture and provide valuable insights for investors and farmers to optimize their production strategies.