Aquaculture continues to grow at a rapid pace, making it the world’s fastest-growing food production sector, with Bangladesh being no exception. Shrimp is the biggest revenue-generating aquaculture species, with Bangladesh earning a significant amount of revenue from shrimp exports. However, due to the impacts of climate change, which are not just a future but also a present fact, the sustainability of shrimp production is jeopardized. As a result, this study uses longitudinal data from 1990 to 2020 to investigate the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on shrimp production. The climatic elements include annual temperature, precipitation, CO2 emissions, and average salinity, whereas the non-climatic components are gross cultivated areas, fisheries credit, and labor force. We have used recently developed novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) model from a methodological approach. The findings revealed that the variables under examination had a long term cointegration. According to the baseline regression findings, temperature, precipitation, and salinity all have a detrimental effect on shrimp production in the short and long term, whereas CO2 emissions have an adverse influence on shrimp production in the long run. Cultivated lands, labor force, and fisheries financing, on the other hand, all have a favorable and considerable impact on shrimp production in the long and short term. However, this study also shows that a 10% positive and negative shock in the predictors, as well as a counterfactual shift in the predicted variables. From the standpoint of policy implications, this study has produced far-reaching policy recommendations, including that the government should give farmers with reliable climate predictions so that farmers may take necessary corrective action in the event of a production shortage. Farmers should also be given with prompt extension and finance assistance so that they can respond to any unfavorable weather situations.
Keywords: Climate change; Sustainable shrimp production; Coastal Bangladesh.