Cage culture in Lake Victoria has emerged as a rapidly expanding aquaculture practice, promising increased fish production to meet the region’s growing demand for protein and economic development. However, this growth masks a precarious undercurrent—akin to a "dormant volcano"—with significant implications for fish welfare. Currently,there are >6000 cages erected on the Kenyan side of the lake with mixed reactions from stakeholders on its sustainability. Poor regulatory oversight, high stocking densities, environmental degradation, and limited adherence to best aquaculture practices have created conditions that could erupt into widespread fish health crises and ecological imbalance. This paper explores the hidden risks associated with the current trajectory of cage aquaculture in Lake Victoria. Published literature from peer reviewed journals, unpublished data, scientific reports, and professional opinions from the experts was used in this study. in different parts of the Winam Gulf and further deployment is being experienced amidst cries from resource managers, researchers, policy makers and the community on its sustainability due to increased massive fish kills that have been witnessed in the ecosystem since its inception. Since the deployment of these cages was not informed by any Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report, we have an assumption that the lake has no capacity to support cage culture going by its eutrophic state. This study, therefore, aims at reviewing available literature in order to determine whether cage culture is sustainable or not, and thereby offer scientific and professional guidance to inform management. It was confirmed that Lake Victoria has experienced eutrophic and hypertrophic status since 1990, resulting into proliferation of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) thus apart from affecting the lake ecology, has led to massive fish kills both in cages and the wild. Further, the situation has been exacerbated by cages whereby 12,487,560 kg of organic matter, 539,400 kg of nitrogen and 171,120 kg of phosphorus is loaded into the lake system each cycle (of 8 months) as organic waste. Consequently, poor water quality has seen massive fish kills both in cages and in the wild causing farmers’ losses amounting to >1billion shillings so far. Therefore, without timely intervention, the latent threats may destabilize both the industry and the lake’s delicate ecosystem, transforming a promising venture into a source of ecological and socioeconomic strain. We emphasize the urgent need for integrated policies, stakeholder training, and welfare-focused standards in lake-cage culture industry for sustainability.
Key words: Sustainable development; Blue Economy; Fish welfare; Winam gulf; Sustainability; Eutrophication.