Inflation has been a significant concern to most Americans and has experienced the highest over the last 40 years. In June 2022, the U.S. inflation rate (12-month percentage change) reached to the highest (9.10% for all items and 10.40% for food) and declined to 2.5% for all items and 2.10% for food in August 2024. Available information suggests that inflation reduced the purchasing power of seafood consumers. The U.S. demand for fish is more price elastic compared to other countries. Existing studies suggest that the demand elasticity of fish among U.S. consumers ranged between 0.50 and 0.79. Imports of fish products are also price sensitive. This study has quantified the impact of inflation on the competitiveness of U.S. farm-raised catfish products and the import of catfish and catfish-like products. The study analyzed catfish production, import, and consumption data from multiple sources. Using a constant market share (CMS) approach, it has examined the changing pattern of competitiveness of the U.S. catfish industry for four periods: (i) Normal Period (January 2015 to February 2020), (ii) Stressed Market Period, affected by the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to June-2021), (iii) Inflationary Period (July 2021 to June 2023), and (iv) Post-Inflationary Period (July 2023 to June 2024). Further, it has decomposed the changes in competitiveness into three effects: (1) structural effect, (2) competitive effect, and (3) second-order effect. Finally, the study has articulated the implications of the research findings for the United States aquaculture and trade policy.
Keywords: inflation, competitiveness, catfish, constant market share, international trade.