Tilapia production in Mato Grosso do Sul has steadily increased, making the state the third largest in exports. The growth of aquaculture necessitates technological advancements to enhance fish uniformity and increase stocking capacity. Evaluating the economic feasibility of such ventures in the region is crucial for strengthening the rapidly growing production chain. Analysis of various sales price scenarios in the study area fosters dialogue for sector development and understanding operational bottlenecks. This research assesses the implementation of technified tilapia farms across different water surface areas (5 ha, 10 ha, and 20 ha) in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, in Brazil’s Midwest.
The evaluation adopts a semi-intensive system in excavated ponds with earthen bottoms and monk drainage. Stocking begins with 40 g juveniles at an initial density of 6 fish per m². After a 210-day cultivation period with 95% survival rate, fish are harvested averaging 840 g in weight. The feed conversion ratio for this technified production is 1.47 kg of feed per kg of fish produced. Productivity per hectare per cycle was 48 t ha⁻¹ cycle⁻¹ (73 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Initial investment analysis includes fixed asset expenditures (CAPEX) such as fountain and paddle aerators, automatic feeders, silos for feed storage, electrical grid posts, solar panels, generator, employee housing, composting facility, and documentation (licenses and project approvals). A 3% annual provision for maintenance of improvements and equipment (Operational Expenditure [OPEX]) was considered based on the total acquisition value. Depreciation was calculated using the straight-line method.
Operational costs and expenses (nominal values) were surveyed, including fixed labor, electricity, feed, maintenance, technical assistance, harvesting, and juvenile procurement. Cash flow projections spanned a 10-year horizon. The following indicators were calculated: Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Modified Internal Rate of Return (excluding reinvestment) [MIRR], Net Present Value (NPV), and Simple Payback Period. The discount rate used (15.62% - nominal interest rate) represents the cost of equity (ke). The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) benchmark for the US market as of May 2024 was utilized to calculate ke. Sales were considered primarily to the processing industries.
Results (Table 1) indicate that sales price significantly impacts indicators for this market, with farms larger than 10 ha recommended due to greater resilience against price fluctuations paid by the industry.