AQUA 2024

August 26 - 30, 2024

Copenhagen, Denmark

DEVELOPING AN INNOVATIVE RAPID RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK TO ADDRESS THREATS FROM AQUATIC DISEASES IN A CHANGING WORLD

Debbie Murphy*, Sophie Armitage, Hannah Tidbury, Mickael Teixeira Alves

Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture (Cefas)

The Nothe, Barrack Road,

Weymouth, DT4 8UB,

 United Kingdom

debbie.murphy@cefas.gov.uk

 



Climate change can impact aquatic animal health by influencing pathogen expression, virulence and survival, and by modifying the distribution and interaction between pathogens and susceptible hosts .  To effectively  anticipate and mitigate risks under future climate conditions, the specific nature of these impacts need to be captured.

A rapid risk assessment (RRA) tool  was  developed specifically for aquatic pathogens and explores its practical application to risk communication.  It gathers essential knowledge about pathogen characteristics, host specificities, feasible routes of introduction, conditions for establishment, potential consequences, and mitigation measures. Additional information on diagnostic methods is also provided when available. Based on the best scientific evidence available, supported by the literature and expert opinion, t he main objective of the RRA is to estimate likelihoods of the introduction, establishment and potential consequences of a pathogen  under different climate change scenarios. The  tool therefore provides evidence to 1) inform disease risk profiles 2)  predict ecological, economic and social impacts of disease , 3 ) inform and  underpin communication of risk,  and 4 )  direct future research to address  knowledge gaps.

The RRA approach provides a robust and systematic framework for the  ranking of aquatic disease risks under climate change, allowing for a n adaptive  and effective mitigation management .  The tool supports risk communication with stakeholders and provides evidence to support the industry in addressing future climate challenges and identifying  opportunities for aquaculture diversification.