Infectious diseases are a major threat to aquaculture sustainability. Once established aquatic diseases can spread rapidly due to the high connectivity between aquaculture sites. Control measures such as movement restriction, contact tracing, culling, disinfection and fallowing can be implemented to mitigate this spread. These measures are often associated with substantial costs. Therefore, evidence is necessary to provide epidemiological and economic justification for implementing such control measures. To this aim, mathematical modelling frameworks can be used to simulate disease epidemics within the aquaculture industry and evaluate the efficiency of control measures, providing valuable insights to inform biosecurity decision-making.
Here, we present the Aquaculture Network Model (referred to as Aqua-Net Mod), a mathematical modelling framework underpinned by a network representing aquaculture site connectivity via several mechanisms such as along river networks and live fish movements. Using real-world data representative of the salmonid aquaculture connectivity network in England and Wales, the model simulates disease spread, facilitating evaluation of the epidemiological impacts of disease outbreaks, and the cost-benefits of control measures.
Aqua-Net Mod outputs provide a better understanding of disease epidemics in highly connected aquaculture networks and offer essential insights into the most economically and epidemiologically effective measures to mitigate the impacts of important salmonid diseases. The model is thus a comprehensive and adaptable tool that supports preparedness and cost-efficient response to disease outbreaks in aquaculture.