This study focuses on comprehensively understanding Lake Victoria’s hydrological dynamics and their implications for fisheries, aquaculture management, water resource planning, and climate studies. It utilized the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to simulate critical factors such as water temperature and circulation patterns. The analysis reveals distinct seasonal cycles governing thermo-stratification and mixing in the lake’s water column, with thermo-stratification occurring from September to May and mixing prevailing from June to August. Surface water temperatures follow seasonal patterns, peaking in May and June before gradually decreasing to annual lows in August and October.
Over time, significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover have been observed, particularly preceding fish kills in the lake. These changes impact thermal dynamics, nutrient cycling, and species distribution within the ecosystem. The study emphasizes the vital role of water circulation, highlighting areas with poor circulation as susceptible to stagnant water conditions and fish kills, while areas with strong currents maintain better water quality. The findings lead to key management recommendations, including enhancing water circulation, mitigating algal bloom threats, monitoring and managing temperature dynamics, improving water quality monitoring, enhancing watershed management practices, fostering stakeholder collaboration and knowledge exchange, and adapting to climate change impacts.
Keywords: Lake Victoria ; cage culture; upwelling ; circulation ;