Aquaculture America 2023

February 23 - 26, 2023

New Orleans, Louisiana USA

HOW PRICE AND NON-PRICE FACTORS INFLUENCE THE MARKET PRICE OF MAJOR CARP FISH: A DYNAMIC ARDL SIMULATED MODEL

Md. Akhtaruzzaman Khan, Md. Emran Hossain, Md. Takibur Rahman and Madan Mohan Dey

azkhan13@bau.edu.bd

 



Recently, fish prices in Bangladesh have been growing, particularly the market price of major carps, even though the factors that may be contributing to this trend are unexplored. In this milieu, this study considers some price and non-price factors to explore the market price dynamics of major carp species in Bangladesh. To explore the factors impacting the market price of carp fish, we apply advanced time-series econometric modeling, such as the recently devised dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using publicly available data on fish prices from 2005M1 to 2021M12. This period is attributed to the rapid transformation from mostly low-intensity farming to commercialization due to a rise in productivity and market price. Among the price factors, the findings demonstrate that price of corn, soybean and oilcake, and fisheries wage rate have a favorable significant impact on fish price in both the short and long term. In addition, among the non-price drivers, GDP per capita, inflation rate, and fish consumption all have a significant positive influence on the fish price in the long run, whereas total production has a detrimental effect on fish price in the long run. These results have significant policy ramifications for attaining the UN announced SDGs-1 (no poverty) and 2 (zero hunger) since aquaculture is one of the pertinent occupations of many rural farmers in Bangladesh. For the sake of fish farmers’ profit maximization goals and consumers’ welfare maximization, the government should have a rational input-output price-fixing policy.