SHRIMP PRICE TRENDS AND FORECAST IN DELHI’S GAZIPUR WHOLESALE FISH MARKET

The wholesale fish market at Gazipur is one of the largest regulated fish markets in India. Market primarily deals with freshwater fishes followed by marine fishes and shrimps. Fishes come from Rohtak, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, and Gujarat. It is also distributed to several retail outlets/markets. It has 252 wholesale shops and 70-80 retail stalls. The average quantum of fish arrival is about 100-150 tonnes/day. Of the total supply, freshwater fishes contribute 60% due to high demand. Most preferred species are Catla, Rohu, Mrigal and Pangass. Cultural preference, taste and cost are main reasons for this preference. Shrimps constitute <5 % of total supply on an average with 1-2 tons/ day. Monodon, Vannamei and Macrobrachium sp. in different size categories are the common shrimp commodities in the market. This study analyses the price trends of shrimps as well as expected future prices through forecasting technique (ARIMA).

The result shows that price of all three shrimp size categories have increased at a marginal rate (0.5 % CGR) over the years between 2010 and 2018 (Fig. 1). Among three sizes, the 50 count (SHRIMP-50) has high price fluctuations, perhaps due to higher consumer preference for this size category. Significant seasonal price variations were observed in all 3 size categories. Price peaked during winter months and dipped during festival seasons. Increase in supply of vannamei on one hand and limited demand for shrimps on the other hand were the main reasons for price fluctuations over the years in CGR analysis. Price forecast for next 6 months from October 2018 to March 2019 of shrimp20, Shrimp50 and shrimp70 have decreasing, increasing (more demand), and constant trends respectively. Prevalence of growing demand for shrimp among consumers may enhance its supply, especially count50 in the Gazipur market and would be the efficient outlet for the budding shrimp farmers.