WWW.WAS.ORG • WORLD AQUACULTURE • MARCH 2026 69 Environmental sensitivity is another factor. Fish, crustaceans, and shellfish live in water, a medium that easily transmits disease and pollution. Abrupt changes in dissolved oxygen, temperature, or salinity can cause sudden stress or mortality. Pathogens spread invisibly and can decimate entire populations before they are detected. Unlike crops that can sometimes recover after drought or pests, aquatic animals rarely get second chances once affected. The external context adds layers of complexity. Aquaculture often takes place in coastal zones where multiple users (fishers, tourists, other commercial and industrial uses and transportation) and conservation concerns compete for space. Regulatory frameworks are often fragmented, with overlapping jurisdictions and complex permitting processes. Some investors approach aquaculture with the assumption that it will perform like more mature livestock industries such as poultry or cattle. This can lead to underestimating the sector’s biological volatility, disease risks, and capital requirements. The result is a sector with high potential but equally high vulnerability to risks. Certainly, this does not mean failure is inevitable. It means that risks must be well understood, measured, and systematically managed. Ten 10 Common Reasons Ventures Fail Although there are many more factors that affect the viability and success of aquaculture projects, the following 10 seem to be particularly relevant: Contextual or Cultural Misalignment. One of the most common but least visible causes of failure is misalignment among owners, directors, and managers. Projects often bring together international investors, local entrepreneurs, and technical specialists. While diversity of perspectives can be a strength, it can also result in conflict when expectations differ. For example, in one aquaculture venture, foreign investors pushed for rapid expansion to capture export markets, while local partners cautioned that essential inputs and infrastructure were not yet in place. The resulting disagreements escalated into paralysis, Aquaculture’s Promise and Peril Aquaculture is widely regarded as the “blue revolution” of the 21st century. It already provides more than half of the seafood consumed worldwide, and its role is projected to continue growing in the years ahead. Demand for fish will continue to climb as population increases, cities expand, education and incomes rise, and consumers’ preferences continue to shift toward seafood. With wild fisheries fully exploited or in decline, aquaculture offers a sustainable pathway to expand the seafood supply. For investors, aquaculture presents compelling long-term growth prospects. For governments, it supports food security, rural development, and export generation. And for coastal communities, aquaculture creates jobs, income, and economic opportunities in areas often overlooked by other industries. Yet behind this optimism lies a sobering reality: aquaculture faces a high rate of project failure. Estimates indicate that more than half of ventures do not survive beyond five years, leading to disappointment, reputational damage for the sector, and reduced investors’ appetite. This paradox -substantial promise coupled with frequent collapse- demands attention. Why do aquaculture enterprises fail at such high rates? And what actions can be taken to de-risk investments so that projects become more resilient, profitable, and sustainable over time? Drawing on decades of global experience across farmed species, this article examines the most common underlying causes of failures and proposes strategies to improve success rates. Its main objective is to present lessons around 10 interlocking factors we believe make the difference between resilience and collapse. Why Aquaculture Carries High Risk All agribusinesses involve risk, but aquaculture has a distinctly inherent risk profile. Biology, technology, markets, the environment, and governance interact in ways that usually create fragile systems. Unlike terrestrial livestock species, which have been domesticated for centuries and are supported by robust supply chains, many aquaculture species are still in their initial phases of domestication. Their reproduction, nutrition, genetic selection, and health management practices are not fully optimized, making production inherently variable. De-Risking Aquaculture: Why Ventures Fail and How to Build Resilient Success Lorenzo M. Juárez, Juan-Pablo Lazo, Antonio Garza de Yta, Trond Bjorndal, Carlos Wurmann and Humberto Villarreal (CONTINUED ON PAGE 70) PHOTO 1. Actions can be taken to de-risk aquaculture investments so that projects are more resilient, profitable and sustainable.
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